Post #20 – The Fourth Turning and the Family: Why Understanding Cycles Helps You Prepare for What Comes Next
- kmcvadon
- Mar 31
- 4 min read
In Post #17, we explored Sir John Glubb’s The Fate of Empires—a sweeping analysis of 3,000 years of history that revealed a sobering truth: great powers rarely fall because of external enemies; they collapse from within.
Glubb’s work showed that empires tend to follow a predictable 250‑year arc, moving through phases of pioneering energy, expansion, affluence, intellectualism, and finally decadence and decline. His findings weren’t meant to be dramatic—they were meant to be diagnostic. A way to understand where a nation sits in its lifecycle, and what pressures ordinary people will feel long before the headlines acknowledge them.
Today, we look at another lens—one that doesn’t examine empires over millennia, but societies over generations.
And when you place these two models side by side, the overlap is hard to ignore.
The Strauss & Howe Fourth Turning: A Generational Clock
Historians William Strauss and Neil Howe argue that American history moves in repeating 80–100‑year cycles, each divided into four eras called Turnings. Each Turning lasts about 20–25 years and reflects a generational mood shaped by crisis, recovery, rebellion, or unraveling.
Here’s the cycle in plain language:
The Four Turnings
1. First Turning – The High
A period of unity, strong institutions, and national confidence.
Example: Post‑WWII America.
2. Second Turning – The Awakening
A cultural and spiritual rebellion against established norms.
Example: The 1960s–1970s.
3. Third Turning – The Unraveling
Institutions weaken, individualism rises, polarization deepens.
Example: 1980s–early 2000s.
4. Fourth Turning – The Crisis
A society‑wide breakdown and reset.
Old systems fail. New systems are forged.
Examples: The American Revolution, the Civil War, the Great Depression + WWII.
According to Strauss & Howe, we entered the current Fourth Turning around 2008, triggered by the global financial crisis.
If their model holds, the climax and resolution fall somewhere between the late 2020s and mid‑2030s.
In other words:
we are living through the most dangerous and transformative stage right now.
What Defines a Fourth Turning?
A Fourth Turning is not “doom.”
It is a reset—messy, painful, and unavoidable.
Key characteristics include:
• Institutional collapse
• Leadership crises
• Economic restructuring
• Domestic or global conflict
• A demand for new systems and new identity
It is the end of one era and the birth of another.
For families, this means the environment around you becomes more volatile, less predictable, and more dependent on your own capability—not the stability of the system.
Why These Cycles Matter for Family Resilience
Most people experience history as a series of surprises.
But cycles—Glubb’s 250‑year arc and Strauss & Howe’s 80‑100‑year rhythm—show us that instability is not random. It is patterned.
When you understand the pattern, you stop being surprised.
And when you stop being surprised, you can start preparing.
Here’s what this means for families today:
1. You Recognize That Turbulence Is Not an Anomaly
Economic shocks, political polarization, institutional distrust—these aren’t glitches.
They are features of a Crisis era.
Understanding this removes the emotional whiplash and replaces it with calm assessment.
2. You Stop Waiting for “Normal” to Return
Fourth Turnings don’t snap back.
They resolve into something new.
Families who cling to the old model get blindsided.
Families who adapt early build resilience.
3. You Focus on Capability, Not Comfort
Crisis eras reward households that can:
• solve problems independently
• maintain continuity during disruptions
• protect their finances
• stay connected to community
• make decisions under uncertainty
These are teachable skills—not personality traits.
4. You Build Margin Before You Need It
Every historical cycle shows the same truth:
the families who fare best are the ones who prepared during the quiet moments before the storm peaks.
Margin—financial, emotional, logistical—is the modern equivalent of high ground.
5. You Strengthen Your Identity and Values
Fourth Turnings strip away illusions.
They force individuals and families to decide what they stand for.
A strong household identity becomes an anchor when the wider culture is in flux.
Why TRSC Teaches History as a Resilience Tool
At TRSC, we don’t study history to sound academic.
We study it because patterns reveal pressure points, and pressure points reveal where families need capability the most.
When you understand the cycles:
• the news makes more sense
• the volatility feels less personal
• the future becomes something you can prepare for, not fear
History doesn’t repeat perfectly, but it rhymes loudly enough for anyone willing to listen.
And right now, the rhyme is unmistakable.
Bottom Line
The Fourth Turning suggests we are living through:
• a once‑in‑a‑century systemic upheaval
• a period where the old order collapses
• a moment when the next order is forged through conflict and hard choices
You cannot control the cycle.
But you can control how prepared your family is to navigate it.
Understanding the past is not nostalgia.
It is a survival skill.
And in a Crisis era, it becomes one of the most important tools a family can possess.
Sources:
For those who want a deeper dive into the generational model, see the article:
About the Author
Kevin McVadon is the founder of TRSC and a retired special operations and intelligence professional with decades of experience studying global threats, tracking terrorist incidents, and analyzing real‑world crises for senior leaders. Years spent identifying patterns in hostile events—across regions, actors, and timelines—shaped a deep understanding of how instability emerges and how ordinary people are affected long before headlines catch up. Today, that same analytical discipline is applied to helping families and communities build practical, capability‑driven resilience in an increasingly unpredictable world.
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